Poison Pero is RIGHT!

Thursday, February 04, 2016

THIS WEEK IN PICTURES

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Iowa Matters

If you asked 100 everyday Americans what happened at the Iowa Caucus Monday night, I'm betting at least 50 would have no idea what the Iowa Caucus is...For that matter, I'm betting at least 10 have no idea where Iowa is, and at least 1 wouldn't know when Monday was.

Most of those who know the Iowa Caucus occurred will wonder: 'Why do they have goofy caucuses instead of just having a popular vote?'

Each state is allowed to make their own nominating process, and the caucuses are from a time in the past - a time when technology and travel was limited.  Yes they are a little antiquated, but I think they serve a valuable function:  The President of the United States is the nations chief executive.  He is the CEO of our country, and if he doesn't have excellent organizational and administrative skills he has no business being our President.  The caucuses highlight these organizational skills - an important skill each American voter should be looking at.

That said, the Iowa Caucus was important because it taught us some things about the 2016 Presidential Nomination process.

Republicans
- Donald Trump is not going to ride a wave and become the easy nominee...He may eventually become the nominee, but he is not going to get it easily.  Donald will win plenty of primaries, because there is no doubt the power of popular culture will continue to give him a huge advantage over much less known politicians.  And those who are giddy at seeing Trump lose in Iowa need to remember he wasn't really predicted to win it, and he isn't going to disappear.
- Cruz and Rubio have superior organizations, which is why they showed so well in the caucus...It will be interesting to see if Cruz or Rubio's organizational supremacy can make up the difference in Trump's name recognition.
- It will also be interesting to see if Trump will even bother to improve his political organization, or if he will rely solely on his name...I think he learned a lot in Iowa, and will recognize his organization is too weak to go the distance.  He is a smart guy, and I'm betting he is a quick learner in the political game.
- Huckabee finally gave up, and there are at least a few others who need to drop this week as well - Fiorina and Santorum are the most likely to do so.  Carson and Paul will be next if they don't do much better in New Hampshire; which they won't.
- Cruz and Trump scored in the range many predicted (give or take a few points), but Rubio really did well compared to the expectations...I've been saying for a long time that Rubio would be most voter's second choice, and would benefit when it came time to start voting, because people who like Fiorina, Santorum, Huckabee, etc., would realize their favorite had no chance and would vote for Rubio instead.  We'll see if this continues to happen as candidates drop out.
- I only think one of the governors makes it past South Carolina (Feb. 20).  Kasich and Christie may do well in New Hampshire, but there isn't room for everyone past Carolina...I'd bet on Christie.
- Bush has a boatload of cash, but for the life of me I don't know why he would want to continue the humiliation.

Democrats
- Short of prison, there is still no way Bernie is going to beat Hillary.  He may win a few states (like New Hampshire on Tuesday), but he'll never win enough to garner enough delegates to overwhelm her Super Delegate lead.
- Bernie won't win, but Hillary isn't going to sail into the nomination easily...He seems more and more invigorated, and Hillary's flaws show more and more with each passing day.  She really is a terrible candidate, and even Democrats know it - though that won't stop them for voting for her.
- The 'kids' really don't like Hillary...She won Iowa (by the slimmest of slim margins), but she got hammered by the 'under 45 crowd.'  This is going to be a problem for the entire nomination process, and will really be a problem if these 'kids' don't show up for her in the Presidential Election - which is a wild card considering how fickle they are.
- Hillary may not want to acknowledge it, but her FBI problems are a huge issue...Democrat voters were interviewed after caucusing, and more than half said they don't believe she is honest, and have a problem with her email/server issues.  This is going to dog her for the entire process - it'll likely get much worse.
- If Democrats don't trust her, I can only imagine how bad her numbers are with 'independents.'
- If not for winning 6 coin flips, Hillary would have lost Iowa...Yes, the Democrats actually use a coin flip to break ties in the Iowa Caucus.  Hillary won all 6 of the coin flips - a pure coincidence I'm sure.
- Martin O'Malley dropped out...Not that anyone noticed.

Ultimately, Iowa matters because it got the ball rolling.  Up until Monday everything was speculation and reading of the tea leaves...The game is on, and we are on our way towards having nominees - and then a new President.

I hope you are paying attention and are involved.  Our Founding Fathers created our republic on the assumption 'the people' cared enough to care...Sadly, I'm pretty certain time is proving them to be incorrect, but it is our home and we will eventually get what we ask for - what we deserve.  For better or worse.

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Sunday, January 31, 2016

Prager University: Radical Islam - The Most Dangerous Ideology

"We teach what isn't taught." - Dennis Prager

Most Islamic extremism happens on the other side of the world - for Americans.  Unfortunately, we live in a world drastically shrunk by the marvels of modern technology; a reality which brings Islamic extremism within reach of everyone on Earth...Spreading their ideology to every corner of the planet is the exact goal of Islamic extremists - to force Sharia on every human being on Earth.

Luckily, this goal is impossible for the extremists.  Their ideology is incompatible with most civilizations on the planet, their numbers are far to small (Muslims constitute only about 1/6 of the total population, and not all Muslims are extremists - though most are toeing a close line by supporting Sharia), and their technology is far behind much of the globe...But they do have one advantage:  Will power!  Not only do they believe their ideology is superior to everyone else's, but they are willing to do what it takes to further it.

Incredibly, the far more advanced powers in the West have done much to help radical Islam by not acknowledging it is a problem worth exterminating - and yes, I mean that word literally.  At the very least, you'd think the West would do more to keep Islamists from immigrating to their countries...As such, Western il-Liberalism has done much to perpetuate the problem of Islamic extremism, and has not only allowed it to permeate the Middle East, but has allowed it to penetrate the West itself - a reality which won't lead to the conquest of the West by Islamism, but will lead to an incredible amount of pain and suffering for the people of the West at the hands of Islamists.

This semester of Prager University is presented by:  Raymond Ibrahim

"Like fascism and communism, Islamism is totalitarianism in nature...Those aims are antithetical to everything Western and other free societies stand for." - R.I.


"Islamism wants the entire world governed by Sharia, and anyone who opposes Islamist expansionism is the enemy and must be destroyed.  That of course includes the United States, all of Europe, and Israel." - R.I.

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Thursday, January 28, 2016

THIS WEEK IN PICTURES

Pero's Quick Scorecard:  Republican Debate VII

Winners: No one on stage did terribly, though I do feel bad for Carson - for the life of me I can't figure why he's continuing...As such, everyone did fine, but no one really stood out.

Losers:  The Fox moderators weren't quite CNBC, but I don't understand why they went out of their way to be so confrontational...Oh, and the Fox debate meal-ticket didn't come to play; a fact which will surely show when the numbers come out about how many watched this one compared to previous Republican debates.

Wild Card:  Trump took a gamble not participating in the debate.  Truth is his presence was there, however.  Each of the participants (candidates and moderators) knew the 'Big Show' wasn't there and the whole think felt forced and incomplete...That said, if recent history is any guide, Trump's stunt will likely see him go up in the polls.  If nothing else, the moderators weren't able to put him in a box, and maybe more important, Trump wasn't there to open his mouth and say something stupid - which at this point is his biggest nemesis.

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Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Bernie's Gonna Beat 'The Queen'!!

Not!

In the last couple weeks, I've had many people ask if I think Bernie Sanders actually has a chance of beating Hillary for the Democrat presidential nomination...I'm very aware of some of the latest poll data, and I'm also aware of what a brutal candidate Hillary is - but there is no way Bernie is going to topple her.

There is only one person who can keep Hillary from the prize, and that person is Barack Obama...Specifically, if Obama was to give the Justice Department the go to indict her for her email/server mess.

Obama is not going to let this happen, and truth be told I hope he doesn't - I'll explain why another day.

Below is an excellent portion of an article by Paul Jacobs, which does a great job of explaining why Hillary cannot lose the Democrat nomination...I've tried to explain the Democrat Super Delegate 'fix', but this article does much better than I can.  I've put the important points in bold.


(D)espite the fact that a majority of Americans don’t trust Hillary, and even 40 percent of Democrats say “honest” isn’t a good word to describe her, Mrs. Clinton will nonetheless win the Democratic Party nomination for president.

And that’s whether a majority of the people who cast ballots in Democratic primaries and caucuses vote for her...or not.

A Done Deal

One might surmise that the Democratic Party would embrace democratic practices and principles, and, therefore, that the candidate garnering the most votes in these exciting caucus and primary contests we hear so much about would win the party’s nomination. One would surmise incorrectly.

Let me explain: Democrats have a lot of “superdelegates.”

These are party leaders, elected officials and former elected officials. In short, muckety-mucks. They’re appointed to be delegates and get to vote representing the party establishment, just like the delegates actually chosen through democratic elections get to vote. Thankfully, there are only 712 superdelegates among a total of 4,764 delegates.

Still, that’s 15 percent of the total vote. And why should there be even one unelected delegate voting to cancel out an elected delegate’s vote?

By the way, did I mention that Hillary Clinton leads Sanders in committed superdelegates by 380 to eleven? She’s winning the insider vote by an incredible 97 to 3 percent over the Bern.

What does this mean? It means that Bernie Sanders could win the actually voting in all the primaries and caucuses by a whopping 58 to 42 percent over Clinton and still lose the presidential nomination to Hillary among delegates as a whole.

That’s not democracy. It’s a fixed insider game...played to near perfection by the consummate insider politician.

Hillary Clinton will not be indicted. The DOJ won’t stop her. Bernie Sanders won’t stop her, either, even with an underwhelmed Democrat base flocking to the democratic socialist.

Will Republicans?

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Sunday, January 24, 2016

Prager University: Is Climate Change Our Biggest Problem?

"We teach what isn't taught." - Dennis Prager

Anyone who denies the existence of 'Climate Change' truly is an idiot.  Climate change has been around as long as Earth has had an atmosphere.  It's not debatable; it's just fact...What is debatable is man's effects on Climate Change - for better or worse.

The other thing which isn't debatable is humans have dealt with Climate Change from the time they came into being - however you think they came into being...We have existed through periods of Global Warming, Global Cooling, and everything in between.  Our ancestors figured ways to make it work, no matter how trying and terrible it may have been.  It is only in our time that we have become so mentally weak that we don't believe we can make it through whatever climate changes are thrown our way.

Personally, I have no doubt we are in for many changes in how we deal with our environment.  That said, I also have no doubt we can figure it out.  Our technology is amazing and our ability to adapt and change is equally impressive...The only question I have is have we as humans become so pathetic that we can't make it through the same changes our much less advanced ancestors were able to.  Only time will tell, but I'm betting on the resiliency and genius of our species.

This semester of Prager University is presented by:  Bjorn Lomborg

"Global Warming is a problem that needs to be addressed, but exageration doesn't help, and often distracts us from simple, cheaper, and smarter solutions." - B.L.


"When innovation eventually makes 'green energy' as cheap, or cheaper, everyone will use it...Until then, lets cool the fear mongering and make practical decisions that will help people now." - B.L.

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Thursday, January 21, 2016

THIS WEEK IN PICTURES

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